Recession Probability (FRED)

What it is

A model-based recession probability published on FRED. It is an output of a macro model, not a direct market price.

Why it matters

Higher probabilities reflect a greater model-implied likelihood of recession conditions based on historical patterns.

How to read it here

• Green: probability ≤ 20% — low model-implied recession risk
• Yellow: 20% < probability ≤ 50% — elevated risk, conditions warrant attention
• Red: probability > 50% — high model-implied recession risk, reading consistent with recessionary conditions
• Like many macro models, it can be revised — interpret alongside other indicators